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Forecasting

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With the explosion of social media and online news sources, scientists are pioneering research focused on understanding trends in human behavior. Large data sets of open source information provide a window into the underlying behavioral patterns of individuals, groups, and nations. Creating and exploiting computational social science models helps to turn these large data sets into actionable intelligence.

Lockheed Martin is creating analytical tools that improve the speed, quality, and predictive powers of this analysis. These tools will help find trends, recognize patterns, identify potential causes, and forecast the future. The ultimate goal is to provide analysts an enhanced vision to help avoid surprise, understand the present and shape the future.

Worldwide Integrated Crisis Early Warning System
The Worldwide Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (W-ICEWS) is a novel forecasting technology that can assist in forecasting political instability around the globe. Using heterogeneous computational social science models, W-ICEWS can collect and parse through mountains of publically available unstructured data to help forecast future events. W-ICEWS uses a unique multi-model approach to predict crisis and instability. To forecast future events, the system uses a collection of social science models – rather than a single model – and then aggregates their output based on the historical accuracy of each individual model to produce a composite forecast better than any single model can provide. Originally funded as exploratory DARPA research, W-ICEWS has matured into a robust technology and is now transitioning into use in the field with over 500 users from 30 different government organizations.

LM Wisdom
LM Wisdom is a predicative analytics and big data technology tool that monitors and analyzes rapidly changing public domain information (e.g. newspaper feeds, social media content, press releases, etc.). LM Wisdom’s high performance analytic algorithms analyze the content in near-real time, distinguishing noise from high value information. It captures cultural context, trends, sentiment and influence, providing deeper situational awareness to customers like first responders, security and law enforcement.

LM Wisdom’s analytics allows users to make predictions on social situations — anything from Hollywood award shows to the outbreak of illnesses around the globe. LM Wisdom takes big data and distills information down to subsets of more comprehensible, evaluable information.  The program can be used to understand the magnitude of a movement, as well as the locations and even the rationale, which will lead to better situational awareness for governments or organizations that may be affected.