The Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) program is a comprehensive, integrated, automated, generalizable, and validated system to monitor, assess, and forecast national, sub-national, and internal crises. To that end, ICEWS supports decisions on how to allocate resources to mitigate crisis. Using ICEWS, Combatant Commanders (COCOMs) have a powerful capability to anticipate and respond to stability challenges, allocate resources in accordance to the risks they are designed to mitigate, and track and measure in real time the effectiveness of resource allocations toward end-state stability objectives.
ICEWS uses a mixed methods approach to instability forecasting, combining heterogeneous statistical and agent-based models in an integration framework with an aggregate forecast accuracy of more than 80 percent. These models are provisioned in near real-time from more than 100 data sources and 250 international and regional newsfeeds. More than 17 million news stories are processed by an innovative, shallow-parsing technology (Jabari) and BBN’s Serif NLP technology. The resulting coded event data is presented to decision makers through an interactive, customizable web-based portal featuring time series, map-based and other views. Model forecasts are presented through a variety of visualizations supporting drilldown to foster trust in models through transparency. W-ICEWS is undergoing operational test and evaluation and is currently being transitioned to program of record.
Key Features and Benefits
- iTrace: Near real-time newsfeed ingest and coding, trend visualization and analysis.
- iCAST: Mixed methods approach to instability events of interest (EOI) forecasting.
- iSENT: Sentiment analysis from open source media.
- Customizable, web-based portal provides operators with access to all ICEWS functions.